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Transport Issues:
John Davies, DSW Rail
The focus in this talk is on inter-urban transport and strategic transportation development. There is a key issue to be noted immediately; on the one hand the public is seeking a holistic approach to transport planning; on the other the NAW has no powers with regard to rail, although its views may influence policy. This is a major difficulty if it aims to promote integrated transport; it needs powers over both rail and air to achieve this.
Transport serves several objectives. Sometimes these are in conflict. There are economic imperatives; there are political and social needs; and there are personal likes and dislikes. All produce transport needs and choices.
Economic development demands the improvement of E-W links through Wales. Most journeys are east to west or west-east, and into England. This is a fact of life. Politically, the growing role of Cardiff means that there is a demand for better links to the city from across Wales. When we consider personal transport it is clear that many journeys are out of Wales; in other respects the size of a population centre determines patterns of movement.
An assessment of the transport system in Wales
Roads are generally good as respects E-W movement with few congestion hotspots except in Mid Wales. E-W links through north Wales are superb considering the size of the economy. The worst congestion hot spot is the Newport section of the M4; a solution to this will cause controversy owing to the likely conflict of economic and political considerations. The A470/M4 interface is also an issue. Otherwise there are localised problems in the cities and larger towns.
Rail movement is once again good E-W overall. In north Wales it is moderate to good and getting better. In mid Wales the E-W system is very good and growing substantially in passenger traffic. Here rail appears competitive in time with movement by road. In south Wales the rail system is moderate to good but not getting better. Traffic is declining on the Cardiff-Swansea route despite a seventeen percent national increase in rail use; it is very concerning that there is this contraction of the country's biggest inter-urban rail flow.
North-south links through Wales by road are moderately good in relation to traffic density; it is hard to justify a large investment in this corridor. By rail, N-S links are very poor; the route lacks convenience and a range of alternative connections. This needs investment.
Achieving reductions in road traffic is a difficult project and is currently not happening. The policy has been established that there will be no more major road building in Wales and this will inevitably mean worsening congestion and new hotspots. In the case of rail, the private sector companies have some substantial improvements to services planned, but these have a long lead time. It is probable that there will shortly be significant improvements in inter-urban bus services. I think the government's roads policy is largely right; there remains a need to tackle blackspots for both safety and economic reasons. Investment needs to be targeted at the network around New-port and to the east of Cardiff; to the Heads of the Valleys road; to the A483 in the NE, and to the Menai straits, where a dual carriageway A55 exiting Anglesey will de-cant traffic onto a single carriageway road bridge. There are locations, too, which would benefit from bypasses; at Llandeilo a bypass is desperately needed.
In the case of rail infrastructure there will be an upgrade to the line along the north Wales coast, and relatively large investment in the mid Wales line. There needs to be an investment in capacity east of Cardiff and on the Severn Tunnel main line. West of Swansea there is a need for improved infrastructure and higher line speeds in order to open up economic life in west Wales. Upgrading the rail network here would make less necessary the widening of the A40.
In order to achieve a modal shift from to rail and bus a dramatic increase in service quality is needed.
Transport has the capacity to help unite Wales as a country. In summary this could be achieved through limited investment in roads (a N-S link does not justify £66M spending) and through the development of quality public transport systems. For example, on the N-S route faster trains and better travelling conditions could be achieved with new rolling stock. Higher quality inter-urban coach services are also needed and one could envisage a network of express bus services linking the smaller towns of Wales with Cardiff. These improvements will not take away the need to travel by car but could achieve a shift in favour of public transport. Road development should be modest, and here economic needs should be prioritised; the key investment should be in public transport systems.
Discussion
Peter Cope emphasised John's comment that the lack of integration within the powers of the Assembly makes the development of an integrated transport policy very difficult.
Bill Davies suggested that public transport would not be a viable alternative to private transport use unless it was heavily subsidised.
John responded by emphasising rail's need for subsidy; the volume of traffic will never be present to enable rail to be economic without public support. In practical terms he suggested that improvements to the rail service could improve rail's share of N-S journeys from 5% to 10%. Likewise bus services in many rural areas will never be profitable; they require subsidy if basic social needs are to be met.
David Eager wondered whether increased travel would unite the country, and sug-ested that higher rates of movement conflicted with sustainability objectives.
John accepted that better communications mean more travel. On the other hand, given that Cardiff was the location for the Assembly it was important to make it easier for people to come to Cardiff. He would prefer relatively modest investment for big gains on the A470 corridor and major investment on public transport. He noted as an aside how important, too, it was that people should be able to travel easily to Llan-dudno for conferences (relatively few make this journey by rail); he re-emphasised that a good rail service could reduce N-S road journeys. The need to link Wales to the National Assembly could not be ignored.
Sam Romaya pointed to the problems of Cardiff itself. He wondered what could be done to enhance the city's environment. Would traffic controls in the city centre be necessary as a consequence of the predicted use of the Millennium Stadium for events on 120 days in the year? He indicated the need to consider the link between the city centre and Cardiff Bay, and was worried that the prospect of light rapid transit seemed indefinitely postponed. He also indicated that should the final link to the PDR be completed this would generate traffic bottlenecks at the point where the central link road debouches by the Jail.
John noted that any heavy rail or LRT system needs long gestation. Investment was not economic on short sections. He felt that the need was for a £50M revamp of the existing commuter rail network rather than the investment of £200M or more in LRT. There will inevitably be a need to improve the existing Bay rail link. He also proposed a high quality shuttle bus service from the central station to the Bay, with through ticketing from departure points across Wales. The problem in addressing the transport needs of the Bay reflects the fact that initiatives have been developer led; transport has taken second place to developer needs and as a result the harvest is going to be reaped. Completion of the PDR was essential for economic reasons.
Simon White noted the sustainable development remit of the Assembly. Transport was integral to this. The need will be to try to create sustainable communities in rela-tion to the existing rail network, and to focus on sustainability issues in planning and maintaining the road network.
Owain Wyn highlighted the impact of changes in communications and information technology on movement patterns for people, goods and services. As a teleworker based in Caernarfon he now travelled much less but consumed more on ICT. His travel now tends to be predominantly long rather than short distance; strategic rather than local. He reported increased use of the train but an N-S journey of five to six hours was unsatisfactory; improved infrastructure was essential.
John Davies suggested that the National Assembly can be a key generator of new thinking on renewed rail franchising. It should also address the question of Welsh ex-press bus franchises. Targeting franchising could be more effective than the development of a PTA. Above all it must take its public transport role seriously, seeking to manage the pattern of long distance travel with both the environment and the economy in mind.
Alison Brown pointed to the implications of greenfield development for highways use and the classic tension between economic goods and sustainable development in and out of town. There was currently no co-ordinating strategic transport policy that could address this tension and this should be provided by the Assembly. Was it possible that this could emerge from a design-led approach that was driven by the objective of sustainable development and sustainable communities?
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